Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the malaria burden in northern Ghana: Analysis of routine surveillance data (preprint)

Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic and its collateral damage severely impact health systems globally and risk to worsen the malaria situation in endemic countries. Malaria is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Ghana. This study aims to analyze routine surveillance data to assess possible effects on the malaria burden in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Northern Region of Ghana. Methods: Monthly routine data from the District Health Information Management System II (DHIMS2) of the Northern Region of Ghana were analyzed. Overall outpatient department visits and malaria incidence rates from the years 2015 to 2019 were compared to the corresponding data of the year 2020. Results: Compared to the corresponding periods of the years 2015 to 2019, overall visits and malaria incidence in pediatric and adult outpatient departments in northern Ghana decreased in March and April 2020, when major movement and social restrictions were implemented in response to the pandemic. Incidence slightly rebounded afterwards in 2020 but stayed below the average of the previous years. Data from inpatient departments showed a similar but more pronounced trend when compared to outpatient departments. In pregnant women, however, malaria incidence in outpatient departments increased after the first COVID-19 wave. Discussion: The findings from this study show that the COVID-19 pandemic affects the malaria burden in health facilities of Ghana, with declines in in- and outpatient rates. Pregnant women may experience reduced access to intermittent preventive malaria treatment and insecticide treated nets, resulting in subsequent higher malaria morbidity. Further data from other African countries, particularly on community-based studies, are needed to fully determine the impact of the pandemic on the malaria situation.

Field evaluation of specificity and sensitivity of a standard SARS-CoV-2 antigen rapid diagnostic test: A prospective study at a teaching hospital in Northern Ghana (preprint)

BackgroundThe testing capacity for SARS-CoV-2 in Africa is rather limited. Antigen-detection rapid diagnostic tests (Ag-RDTs) are a cheap and rapid alternative to reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests, but there is little data about their performance under real life conditions in tropical countries. ObjectiveTo evaluate the performance of a standard Ag-RDT in a population of a major hospital in northern Ghana. MethodsProspective, cross-sectional, blinded verification of the performance of the SD Biosensor Standard Q SARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDT under real life conditions in 135 symptomatic patients and 58 contacts of RT-PCR positives at Tamale Teaching Hospital in February 2021. Nasopharyngeal samples were taken under standard conditions and tested against RT-PCR in the hospital laboratory. Results193 participants (median age 35 years, 109 male) were included into the study for which both RT-PCR test and Ag-RDT results were available. A total of 42 (22%) were RT-PCR positive. Of the 42 RT-PCR positives, 27 were Ag-RDT positive, resulting in a sensitivity of 64% (95% CI 49-79). Sensitivity among symptomatic patients was 58% (95% CI 38-78). 123 were identified Ag-RDT negatives of the 151 RT-PCR negatives, resulting in a specificity of 81% (95% CI 75-87). ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 Ag-RDTs appear to have a rather low sensitivity and particularly a low specificity under real life conditions in Africa. The role of existing Ag-RDTs in countries with high-temperature climates and limited resources still needs more data and discussion.

Changing case fatality risk for COVID-19 over time in selected European countries (preprint)

Objectives To illustrate the development of the case fatality risk (CFR) for COVID-19 over time using different assumptions for calculating the CFR. Design Observational study. Setting Selected European countries, 28 January to October 29 2020. Participants Laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths due to COVID-19 Main outcome measure case fatality risk (CFR) Results We show that the CFR has considerably decreased over time. This seems to be driven not only by increased testing but also by a reduced CFR among cases older than 60 years. Our data also confirm a significantly higher fatality risk for men than for women. The decline in the CFR is even more pronounced when only cases and deaths occurring in a specified time window are considered. This alternative estimation method has the advantage that early data where the bias due to the incomplete ascertainment of cases was arguably largest do not affect CFR estimates later on. We find similar results for other European countries. Conclusion CFR estimates vary considerably depending on the underlying assumptions concerning their calculation. Reliable CFR estimates should not be based on cumulative numbers from the beginning of the pandemic but rather be based on more recent data only.